Too Much TV: Your TV Talking Points For Monday, October 23rd, 2023

There are a lot of reasons not to listen to Wall Street analysts

Here's everything you need to know about the world of television for Monday, October 23rd, 2023. 

THERE ARE LOTS OF REASONS NOT TO LISTEN TO WALL STREET ANALYSTS. AND MOST OF THE REASONS ARE IN THIS ARTICLE
One of the things I learned from being a financial reporter is that most Wall Street analysts don't actually care about the strength or weakness of a company or its business model. They are paid to determine where a specific stock price is headed and what actions might move the price one way or the other. If a company has the ability to make a decision that would temporarily boost the stock price 20%, but completely destroy the company in five years, nearly every analyst I know would strongly recommend making that ultimately disastrous move. Because what matters is the stock price boost in the near future.

CNBC's Alex Sherman has a piece today discussing the possibility of Paramount Global being sold off in some fashion. Now Alex is a great journalist and he understands this subject very well. But as a reporter, all you can do sometimes is just let people say their piece. Even if it's fairly idiotic. For instance:

"The market is crying out for reshaping media company portfolios and consolidation," said Jon Miller, chief executive at Integrated Media and a senior advisor at venture firm Advancit Capital, which Redstone co-founded. "But the deck is stacked against large-scale transactions now because of both immediate concerns in terms of ad sales, subscription video numbers and the cost of debt. No one wants to transact at the current market valuations that these companies are given."

Wow..so a senior advisor at a fund co-founded by Redstone thinks the market is crying out for the very move that would allow Redstone to cash out? I did not see that coming.

Let's be clear. Many of the problems with Paramount Global are the result of decisions made by Shari Redstone. She has spent more than a decade scheming various ways to come up with a rejiggered company that someone would be willing to buy. Five years ago, Redstone was touting the CBS-Viacom merger (which led to the formation of Paramount Global) as a great deal that would allow the combined company to have the size to possibly acquire Lionsgate. CBS sued Redstone at one point, claiming she had helped skuttle a deal that would have had Verizon Communications acquire CBS because she wanted CBS for her soon-to-be combined company.

The irony is that the CBS-Viacom merger made Paramount Global less attractive to investors than the companies were on their own. When you sit down to try and attempt to puzzle out who might be willing to acquire Paramount Global, the problem is that any potential suitor would only be interested in parts of the company. And to complicate the issue, no two potential suitors are interested in the same parts of the company.

And I am not the only person who believes that, although we have to balance that agreement with the fact this analyst also wants Paramount to get out of the streaming business entirely:

Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall suggested earlier this year that Bakish should shut down the company’s streaming business entirely, despite the fact that Paramount+ has accumulated more than 60 million subscribers.

“We believe Paramount Global is worth a lot more either as a content arms dealer or as a break-up for sale story,” Cahall wrote in a note to clients in May. “Great content, misguided strategy.'

I agree that Paramount Global is more likely to be stripped for parts like it was a stolen Corvette than any scenario in which the company is acquired whole. Paramount Global has too many disparate parts that don't go together. I can see spinning off the broadcast and perhaps cable assets into a separate company. Then combine the streaming service and studio, while selling off the small divisions that aren't core to the business.

But to be fair, it's not just Wall Street analysts who have taken deep swigs of their own Kool-Aid. This description of the attitude of many Paramount Global executives is something else:

Executives at Paramount Global continue to hold out hope that a large technology company, such as Apple Amazon or Alphabet will view the collection of assets as a way to bolster their content aspirations, according to people familiar with the matter.

Paramount+’s 61 million subscribers could help supersize an existing streaming service such as Apple TV+ or Amazon’s Prime Video, or give Alphabet’s YouTube a bigger foothold into subscription streaming beyond the National Football League’s Sunday Ticket and YouTube TV.

This is a bit like the blind belief of a guy who sits at home not dating because he's convinced he'd be quite the catch for a supermodel. Amazon doesn't need another film studio and catalog. It still hasn't figured out how to fully integrate MGM. And while AppleTV+ has shown it is willing to spend for the right content, it doesn't have any interest in acquiring a massive catalog which includes a bunch of nice IP. But also a lot of semi-worthless crap. And it certainly doesn’t need a bunch of TV and cable channels. Much less a broadcast network.

And then there is this chestnut of prognostication:

“We believe Paramount Global is too small to win the streaming wars, but it is bite-size enough to be acquired by a larger streaming competitor for its deep library of film and TV content, as well as its sports rights and news assets,” Laura Martin, an analyst at Needham & Co., wrote in an Oct. 9 research note to clients.

Here's the problem with that scenario. Yes, there are some great library titles in the Paramount catalog. And some IP that could be taken advantage of (maybe). But sports rights are basically just a rental. They are expensive and have to be renegotiated every few years. So sports certainly aren't an asset that has much value in the long run. And while Paramount's CBS News is a nice asset, I don't think anyone in the industry has figured out how to properly monetize it. And even if they did, name the big media company that could afford to acquire Paramount, but that currently doesn't have any news assets? I'll wait. Yes, Apple and Google don't, but I don't see the slightest desire from either company to get into the low-margin, high-aggravation news business. 

Stock analysts (and more than a few media industry journalists) love to speculate on mergers because it's fun and because it's always an easy subject for a quickly dashed-off hot take. While stock analysts love the idea because mergers and acquisitions can be a money train for everyone involved.

But that doesn't mean it is a good idea.

THE NEW DAILY WIRE KIDS STREAMER BENTKEY IS SURPRISINGLY LAME
The Daily Wire recently launched a new "anti-woke" kids streaming service and The Daily Beast's Joe Berkowitz took a look at it. And it is not only all that anti-woke conservative. It's actually kinda boring:

Of the 17 shows currently available on the app, a baker’s dozen are licensed from other production companies, leaving four Bentkey originals. The licensed shows include Yeti Tales, a French-made, puppet-populated show about a Yeti in a bookshop; Runes, a French-made animated hero’s journey about an unlikely prince in 12th century Normandy; and Gus Plus Us, a legit charming and well-produced musical show, which also happens to feature an unmistakably dong-shaped puppet named Karrot.

The only one of these programs that might raise any eyebrows is How Ridiculous, a YouTube-originated show featuring a trio of hot Australian dudes in their early thirties breaking stuff in outlandishly expensive ways. It’s essentially Boring Jackass. Why anyone would want their 6-year old potentially imitating it is beyond me.

ICYMI
Here are a few of things that were posted on AllYourScreens.com over the weekend:

* Northern Exposure is available for streaming...just not in the U.S.

* Steve Lawrence & Eydie Gorme special coming to PBS in December.

* Sherlock Co-Creator adapting Lot No. 249 for BBC Two.

ODDS AND SODS
* Prime Video's TV adaptation of the video game Fallout will premiere on Friday, April 12th, 2023.

WHAT'S NEW TODAY AND TOMORROW:

MONDAY, OCTOBER 23RD:
* Maine Cabin Masters Season Premiere (Magnolia)
* Princess Power (Netflix)
* The Sommerdahl Murders (Acorn TV)
* 30 Coins (HBO)

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 24TH, 2023:
* Get Gotti (Netflix)
* Help! I'm In A Secret Relationship! Season Premiere (MTV)
* Hot Potato: The Story Of The Wiggles (Prime Video)
* Krishnas: Gurus. Karma. Murder. (Peacock)
* Milli Vanilli (Paramount+)
* Native America (PBS)
* Pete Holmes: I Am Not For Everyone (Netflix)
* Restoration Road With Clint Harp Season Premiere (Magnolia)
* The Priest From Hell (Viaplay)
* Winter House Season Premiere (Bravo)
* Zainab Johnson: Hijabs Off (Prime Video)


Click Here to see the list of all of the upcoming premiere dates for the next few months.

SEE YOU FRIDAY!

If you have any feedback, send it along to Rick@AllYourScreens.com and follow me on Twitter @aysrick.