Too Much TV: Your TV Talking Points - Monday, January 3rd, 2022

Welcome to your newly filled email inbox.

Here's everything you need to know about the world of television for Monday, January 3rd, 2022. I'm writing this from the Twin Cities, where AllYourScreens HQ is still moving slowly back into the normal work flow.

MY NINE MEDIA PREDICTIONS FOR 2022
I regularly write about the television and the media and if there is one trait I share with just about everyone who does what I do, it's my belief that I have a better sense of what will happen in the coming year than nearly anyone else. The other trait I share with my industry co-workers is that I am most likely going to be proven wrong. But what is the Internet for, if not to be financially rewarded for delivering a batting percentage that in baseball would leave you playing for the Fort Wayne TinCaps?

So with apologies in advance for my potential accuracy percentage, here are nine things I believe to take place in the worlds of television, streaming, and the media in 2022:

1) Netflix will announce it is shifting substantial resources from the U.S. production hub to various international production hubs. The most notable consequence will be a reduction of U.S. headcount, including on the PR/marketing/communications departments.

2) Peacock will announce it is devoting more resources to its current anemic original productions efforts, including several somewhat notable executive hires. 

3) Viacom/CBS will not be sold off or acquired. In large part, because Shari Redstone's campaign to combine the two companies has led to the creation of an entity that would require any serious media buyer to sell off half of the business to pass potential regulatory hurdles. Some people might be interested in Paramount's library and assets. Or some of Viacom's IP. But the swallowing entire Viacom/CBS whole is the media business equivalent of drinking sour milk because someone's added some chocolate flavoring to it.

4) Subscription numbers for CNN+ are going to be a severe disappointment. The numbers will end up being goosed by huge discounts and bulk deals. Company officials will blame the problem on "partisan audiences unwilling to pay for non-partisan new programming."

5) TikTok will roll out its streaming music service Resso in the U.S. It's already launched in Brazil, Indonesia, and India and it has substantial social features that allow users to interact with friends and share favorite tracks. That's a big deal, given that I've been told an internal TikTok study shows that 75% of US TikTok users find new artists on the app, and 63% cite TikTok as the first place they look for new music.

6) Speaking of social features, there is a strong chance that a smaller streamer is going to roll out a suite of very innovative social features in 2022. I can't say more about it, but I recently got the chance to see the software in action and it's groundbreaking. All I can say is that right now the big hold-out is whether or not it can be rolled out in a way that would scale to the entire customer base. Stay tuned.

7) The Discovery/Warner Media merger will likely be approved - albeit with some restrictions. I've long argued the potential merger is a terrible move for consumers. But the positives for the business will also be elusive unless you are an executive at one of the companies or a banker. Combining two troubled businesses into one larger business with the same strategic challenges is almost always a disappointment.

8) Along those lines, the "media companies must grow to survive" mantra will become less and less believable. Size doesn't solve core revenue problems. Executives can be just as inept at running a large business as they are running a medium-sized one. If anything, size makes it easier to fail, because the larger size provides some market consolidation that can temporarily hide bad business decisions.

9) The Disney+ series The Book Of Boba Fett will be the first of several examples in 2022 that illustrate the streamer's Marvel/Star Wars TV series strategy is not infallible. 

PEACOCK AND THE WWE
Matthew Belloni has an interesting inside tidbit in his Sunday Puck newsletter:

As subscription growth slows in the U.S., increasingly desperate streamers will prowl for smaller outlets (and their subs). It’s not just to pad the overall sign-up numbers; these platforms are thirsty for fresh content, and the best-case is franchise content, which has shown to keep subs as well. A good model is Peacock-WWE. Last March, NBC Universal took over the pro wrestling outfit’s WWE Network and its 1.1. million subs, offering them a deal on Peacock for their Roman Reigns fix. Check out these internal Peacock stats that came to me from a source:

- Of the 1.1 million subscribers to WWE Network, one million successfully converted to Peacock subscribers.  

- More than 3 million Peacock subs have watched WWE content since it moved over in March.

- More than half of those 3 million subs indicated that they signed up “because of WWE."

Rights and branding issues are thorny, but consolidation makes sense, even if it’s not a major merger like Comcast or Netflix or Roku picking off Lionsgate/Starz, or some of the other buzzed-about potential deals. 

While this is an impressive datapoint, it's also worth noting that the WWE subscriber base is an almost unicorn-level example. Few smaller streamers would have that type of combination of devotion to the product and willingness to subscribe that fans of the WWE Network had. And given the pricing, I'm not surprised that some people who might have wanted to access WWE content but didn't want to spend the money on a standalone WWE Network subscription would decide that the WWE along with Peacock for basically the same price was a good deal.

But I don't think a larger streamer would get the same subscription synergy from acquiring AMC+ and its suite of streamers, much less some of the even smaller streamers.

The one area I think might provide some synergy is the music documentary business. There are 4-5 reasonably-sized streaming music services that offer a content mix of live performances films and music documentaries. HBO Max has had some success with the Bill Simmons series of new music documentaries and music-related docs have been a regular part of the mic at Netflix. While acquiring and rolling a wide range of music content might not add a large number of new subscriptions, it's a relatively cheap way to add value to existing subscribers and slow the subscriber churn that nearly all streaming services are struggling with right now.

TWEET OF THE DAY

WHAT'S NEW FOR MONDAY
Here's a quick rundown of all the new stuff premiering today on TV and streaming:

Antiques Roadshow Season Premiere (PBS)
Bob Hearts Abishola Spring Premiere (CBS)
Kenan (NBC)
NCIS Spring Premiere (CBS)
NCIS Hawaii Spring Premiere (CBS)
9-1-1 Lone Star (Fox)
Ordinary Joe Spring Premiere (NBC)
That's My Jam (NBC)
The Bachelor Season Premiere (ABC)
The Cleaning Lady Series Premiere (Fox)
The Neighborhood Spring Premiere (CBS)
Ugliest House In America (HGTV)
Under The Vines Season One Finale (Acorn TV)

Click Here to see the list of all of the upcoming premiere dates for the next few months.

SEE YOU TUESDAY! 

If you have any feedback, send it along to Rick@AllYourScreens.com and follow me on Twitter @aysrick.