Too Much TV: Your TV Talking Points For Friday, September 27th, 2024

Everything will be pretty in '30

Here's everything you need to know about the world of television for Friday, September 27th, 2024:

EVERYTHING WILL BE PRETTY IN '30
It's challenging to find anyone on the creative side of Hollywood who is feeling calm and/or happily employed at the moment. I have a number of writer friends and even the few who are working are working with this feeling of impending career doom silently hanging over their heads. I hear a lot of them arguing things will get better...at some point. But as I've written before, I'm not entirely convinced that's the case.

I reached out today to an executive I know at one of the streamers to get their take on the state of Hollywood and I'm sharing the part of the conversation that wasn't off-the-record here. For perspective, this is someone who is intimately involved with the streamer's development process and has a good perspective of the industry in general.

I think everyone acknowledges there has been a marked cutback in spending on content industry-wide.. And as I talk to people in Hollywood who are struggling to get by financially, there is a hope that things will eventually improve. 

First of all, while it's true that spending is down, the impact depends on who you're dealing with. Netflix content spending is essentially flat year-to-year. And while Disney's spending is down, they've also been able to claw back some spending that had been used on live sports rights in Asia. So as a company overall, the cut isn't too scary. But some of the streamers have cut back substantially. And that started about 18 months ago, ahead of the Hollywood strikes.

That being said, while it's easy to blame the cutbacks on the streaming business, when you look at things closer, the companies making the deepest rollbacks are also the ones with the biggest challenges company-wide. And it's not a surprise that a company that has trouble executing a successful business strategy company-wide also has trouble with their streaming business.

What's your sense of the near and medium-term prospects for Hollywood?

Sigh. I think if you're working in Hollywood, you just have to accept that things are changing in a way that we can't come back from anytime soon. These spending cutbacks are one thing. But they come on the top of more fundamental changes that are impacting the number of jobs that are going to be available in the next few years - not just for writers and actors, but every job on the production side as well as all the other businesses that rely on those productions.

First, the competition with other states has increased massively over the past few years. It's not just the usual suspects such as Georgia or New Mexico. There are probably at least a dozen states that have the combination of the healthy production rebates and local skilled crews that I need to approve that location. And there are at least another dozen that fall into the situation like you have in Minnesota - where there is a sizable production credit available but there isn't yet the pool of experienced crew that we need. But that changes on a monthly basis.

But a bigger challenge for Hollywood is that a growing number of productions are moving overseas. I think most people realize that places such as the UK or Australia have world-class crews available. But in the past few months, I've had productions shooting in France, Hungary, Serbia, Germany and other places. Many of those countries have new studio facilities or are in the process of building them. And the more productions that shoot there, the better the crews become. 

In the meantime, you see productions that five years ago would have shot entirely in the U.S. Now, the production is toplined by American or British actors and perhaps a few experienced production heads from here to oversee and train the crews. Yes, it's a bit more complicated. But the production price differential is huge. There is the overall lower cost of production, on top of substantial production rebates. And given that some countries require streamers to spend X amount of money annually on local productions, it almost becomes a win-win for studios. If you add a local actor or two to the cast, that makes the project more promotable to local audiences and potentially adds to its value internationally. The differential can be as much as a third less to shoot there than the U.S. And that is massive.

Do you think the dual Hollywood strikes are responsible for the shifts in production?

Not to any large extent. Obviously, having Hollywood shut down for months was problematic. But these trends were already in play. The new WGA and SAG-AFTRA deals didn't help with Hollywood's cost differential. But in many cases, these global productions are utilizing at least some American writers and actors. The factors that are resulting in fewer productions are bigger than the negotiated size of a writer's room.

In a previous life I worked at a big entertainment company in their radio station division. And there was a point when consolidation started to happen and for people who worked at those smaller stations, it was "this evil company is buying our station, firing everyone and automating it just to save money." And we were doing it to save money. But the reality was that most of those stations were going out of business already. The world had changed underneath them. The local advertising market had dried up and they couldn't bring in enough money to stay on the air. 

And while it's not a direct comparison, Hollywood's TV industry is like that right now. The world changed underneath us and everyone is just scrambling around trying to figure it out. Some of the short-term pain will pass. As an industry, everyone is scared of losing their job because they made a wrong decision. And so everyone makes the safe choice. That will pass. But there are a lot of people in Hollywood - executives and creatives - who are going to leave the industry in the next few years. Either because the jobs aren't there or because they aren't the best fit for the fewer number of jobs that are available.

After doing this interview, I saw Andy Dehnart's great series on his Reality Blurred site that tackles the question of "The State Of Reality TV." And many of the things he reports sound very familiar to the challenges I heard about the scripted side of the business:

Showrunner: I keep thinking about the Thomas Friedman book, The World Is Flat. The business has become globalized. You can shoot and edit a show anywhere in the world—saving valuable dollars—without much loss of quality. And now every network and streamer is jumping on board. So there are less shows being made here and those that are have less USA positions available.

We are also reverting back to a normal amount of production. The days of streamers giving tons of producers a big budget to make shows are gone. They were all working in a fiscally irresponsible way because the business became uncoupled from having to be profitable. Or even successful! Places like HBO Max were giving huge budgets and multiple seasons to shows that a ridiculous pittance of people were watching. Why? To give the impression of success and hopefully keep those stock prices humming. That is no longer the mission. Now everyone can only take so many swings. So less is being made.

Go read the entire piece. As well as his other stories on what reality TV producers think about unionizing crews and which reality shows producers watch and admire.

ONE OTHER THING
One thing that wasn't above was the impact of platforms on YouTube on the streaming industry. Yes, a lot of YouTube is filled with reaction videos, Mr. Beast knock-offs and pirated material. But there are also some writers and producers using YouTube as a way to build a new television business and while we're still in the earliest stages, you can already start to see where things are headed.

This Colin and Simir interview is long - nearly two hours. But it's worth watching at least part of it or having it on in the background while you work. They interview Birmingham-based Kinigra Deon, who some people describe as the "Tyler Perry of YouTube." She's producing three 20-minute scripted videos a week and is successful enough that she is in the process of building a studio in Birmingham.

A couple of stats jump out at me. 70% of her views are on connected TVs and more than 90% of her viewers have watched another one of her videos in the past 30 days. She's making money and it points to a business model that might not work for high-end sci-fi ideas (at least, not yet). But it work just fine for this generation's Freaks And Geeks.

The conversation about her production process is fascinating. But it also touches on representation and finding audiences that aren’t being reached by traditional mainstream media.

ROB LOWE IS A FINE ACTOR. BUT...OKAY?

ODDS AND SODS
* While I haven't seen a comprehensive list yet, apparently a number of titles have been removed from Disney+, including quite a few NatGeo titles.

* Whitney Cummings will be hosting the four-episode Friends adjacent game show Fast Friends.

* Syfy has canceled Chucky after three seasons.

* Prime Video’s Pop Culture Jeopardy! with host Colin Jost will premiere Wednesday, December 4th.

* Unprisoned star Kerry Washington says the Hulu series has been canceled after season two.

WHAT'S NEW TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 27TH:
Ayla & The Mirrors Series Premiere (Disney+)
Apartment 7-A (Paramount+) 
Dateline Season Thirty-Three Premiere (NBC)
Gyeongseong Creature (Netflix)
Lisabi: The Uprising (Netflix)
Rez Ball (Netflix)
She Taught Love (Hulu)
Social Studies Series Premiere (FX)
The Great British Baking Show Season Premiere (Netflix)
37th Hispanic Heritage Awards (PBS)
We Were Kings Series Premiere (Netflix)
Will & Harper (Netflix)
Wolfs (Apple TV+)

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 28TH:
48 Hours Season Thirty-Seven Premiere (CBS)
He Slid Into Her DMs (Lifetime)
Saturday Night Live Season Premiere (NBC)
The Real West (Hallmark)
Uzumaki Series Premiere (Adult Swim)

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 29TH:
America's Funniest Home Videos Season Thirty-Five Premiere (ABC)
As A Reincarnated Aristocrat, I'll Use My Appraisal Skill To Rise In The World (Crunchyroll)
Be My Guest With Ina Garten Season Premiere (Food)
Bob's Burgers Season Fifteen Premiere (Fox)
Krapopolis Season Two Premiere (Fox)
Outrageous Pumpkins (Food)
The Most Notorious "Talker" Runs the World's Greatest Clan Series Premiere (Crunchyroll)
The Simpsons Season Thirty-Six Premiere (Fox)
The Summit Series Premiere (CBS)
There's A New Killer In Town (Lifetime)
The Walking Dead: Daryl Dixon - The Book Of Carol Season Two Premiere (AMC)
Uzumaki Series Premiere (Adult Swim)
Witches: Truth Behind The Trials (NatGeo)

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 30TH:
Patrice: The Movie (Hulu)
Rock Legends Season Premiere (AXS)

SEE YOU ON MONDAY!