Too Much TV: Your TV Talking Points For Wednesday, May 19th, 2021

Here's everything you need to know about the world of television for Wednesday, May 19th, 2021. I'm writing this from the Twin Cities suburbs, where AllYourScreens HQ is powered by unsweetened ice tea.

IN DEFENSE OF JASON KILAR
When news broke on Sunday that AT&T was spinning off WarnerMedia and combining it with Discovery Inc., one of the first questions centered on the fate of WarnerMedia CEO Jason Kilar. 

There were a number of pieces in the trades that quoted unnamed entertainment industry sources who were almost gleeful about the prospect of Kilar exiting the company. The Wrap posted "The Brief Rise And Fall Of Jason Kilar, WarnerMedia's Soon-To-Be-Ex CEO," which included this memorable opening paragraph:

“Just because someone knows a business well doesn’t mean they know how to actually run the f—ing business,” one showrunner says.

A piece in the NY Times entitled "A Titan Ascends In The Media World's Game Of Thrones" was more circumspect, but still made sure to lay out of all Kilar's supposed missteps:

With a swagger that astounded Hollywood — who does this outsider think he is? — Mr. Kilar implemented a wide-ranging overhaul, ousting two of WarnerMedia’s top television programmers, smashing the company’s infamous silos, and enraging A-list filmmakers, stars and agents by abruptly deciding to release movies simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max. His 2020 pay package was worth more than $52 million.

It also included the often-heard charge from people in Hollywood: that Kilar didn't understand the importance of relationships in the industry:

“Let’s hope the new management has less disdain for creative talent,” said Jason E. Squire, the editor of “The Movie Business Book” and a professor at the University of Southern California’s School of Cinematic Arts.

Deadline had a piece entitled "Hollywood Cheers AT&T Retreat, Viewing Discovery As More Talent-Friendly Warner Steward," which was filled with the optimism supposedly felt by industry-types now that the big meanie Jason Kilar was likely on his way out:

Few mergers are perfect, and the time between now and the completion of the Discovery-WarnerMedia transaction promises to be a stretch with yet more uncertainty and executive comings and goings. But numerous people in the film world Deadline spoke with felt a newfound sense of optimism about life under David Zaslav. The longtime Discovery boss, who will run the combined entity, is perceived as more industry-savvy and talent-friendly than the current regime at the top.

But here's the thing: in this case the conventional wisdom of Hollywood is wrong.

There has never been a mature industry that has disrupted its familiar business model willingly. IBM ignored the personal computer market until it was too late, Blockbuster famously passed at the chance to acquire Netflix. Most rational executives don't want to give up a familiar revenue stream for a new business model that is unfamiliar and risky.

And yet, that's often the best move in the long run. Embrace a short period of extreme pain and get through it as quickly as possible. The other option is to delay change as long as possible, hoping things will magically improve or that you can get through the transition without any discomfort.

While no comparison between two industries is exact, I think it's fair to compare the challenges faced by Kilar when he took over WarnerMedia from John Stankey to those faced by the music industry when Napster rise to popularity in 1999. That person-to-person file sharing program quickly became massively popular. The ability to seamlessly share files of individual songs at a time when consumers were still primarily purchasing entire albums on CD permanently altered the way people thought about music and how to listen to it. It was a disruptive idea that was quickly embraced by consumers unswayed by musicians who wanted every track of their albums heard in the order they intended. 

It didn't take long for Napster to be sued by both the music industry and by individual groups such as Metallica. At the time, Napster head Shawn Fanning tried to convince the industry to work with him and his pitch might sound familiar to people who worry about the future of the movie and television industry in 2021: "revenue in your industry is slowly falling. Consumers want to enjoy content in this new way. So let's figure out how to make this happen and build new revenue streams. You can willingly make the changes now and get it over with or you can wait until the changes are forced on you by the market and by consumers."

Like in the movie industry of 2021, the music industry of two decades years ago couldn't see past the "this is the way we've always done it" mentality and Napster was taken offline by lawsuits. The result was 15+ years of plunging profits, piracy concerns, battles with Apple iTunes and things didn't begin to turn around until the rise of streaming music services brought some semblance of predictable revenue. As for the musicians like Metallica, they discovered that the music labels had consolidated into three large companies and figured out a way to grab the lions share of digital revenue. While the musicians who actually created the music that drove the industry made pennies.

When Kilar took the lead role at WarnerMedia, he was faced with the similar existential challenge that faced the music industry twenty years ago. A softening market battling the rise of new technology and increasingly strong digital competitors. He could have made changes around the edges, but not only would that not have solved the problem, I suspect he knew the fickle and unpredictable management of AT&T would be impatient. He opted to make massive changes at WarnerMedia, hoping to evolve the company quickly enough to outrun the dangers buffeting the industry.

We can quibble about some of the decisions and no executive is perfect. But the overall arc of Kilar's efforts was to reshape WarnerMedia into a company that was equally at home in the traditional theatrical business or the newest digital markets. His much criticized decision to move WarnerMedia's theatrical slate to a same day digital release on HBO Max not only reflected the more pessimistic take on the pandemic last spring, it also was an opportunity to force the movie business towards a future when the theatrical window is dependent on the movie and the audience. And indeed, it's worth noting that Disney has adapted that mixed release approach, moving some releases directly to Disney+ and others to its $20 "premium" tier.

Despite what passes for conventional wisdom in Hollywood, the probable exit of Jason Kilar from WarnerMedia isn't an indication that he didn't understand the creative community or that he overreached in his decision making. It's a reflection of the reality that he wasn't able to move the massive media company fast enough to begin seeing the results demanded by an impatient AT&T.

A common mantra in Hollywood is that the American movie and television industry is built on relationships. And that is certainly true to an extent which isn't really healthy in many cases. Building business relationships around word-of-mouth and interpersonal connections means that abusers are able to continue their abuse for years because no one wants to burn any potential bridges by being known as someone who complains. It means that support staff and the infrastructure that keeps the industry running often works long hours in unhealthy situations because raising your voice could potentially cost you the chance to continue to work in the future. It leads to the rise of a handful of mostly white showrunners while everyone else is left to battle for the remaining scraps in the entertainment world’s version of “The Hunger Games.”

It also means that people can confuse how someone makes them feel with the validity of their decision-making process. It leads otherwise rational people to give interviews describing Discovery as a more "talent-friendly" place simply because they don't like their current boss.

Jason Kilar wasn't the perfect boss. But he was the right one for WarnerMedia and he was often willing to burn personal relationships in service of making the correct business decision. I don't know where he'll land if he does indeed leave WarnerMedia. But I would trust his judgement over that of some of the so-called experts of Hollywood.

ODDS AND SODS

* Disney Plus is expected to use the Hotstar brand when it launches in Thailand next month, partnering with telco giant AIS.

* Dish files patent suit against Peloton alleging that they infringe on Move Networks streaming patents tied to adaptive bitrate streaming.


CLASSIFIEDS:
Experience The OZY FEST
OZY Fest, the one-of-a-kind festival described as "TED meets Coachella," is back for a virtual celebration of great entertainment and the biggest conversations, streaming live May 15-16. Hang out with Dr Fauci, Condoleezza Rice, Sevyn Streeter, Malcolm Gladwell, Tig Notaro + more. Register now.

Want to advertise in this newsletter? Email me at rick@allyourscreens.com

I'll be back with another one tomorrow. If you have any feedback, send it along to Rick@AllYourScreens.com and follow me on Twitter @aysrick.