Too Much TV: Your TV Talking Points For Monday, May 15th, 2023
Understanding the metrics of the streaming video world.
Here's everything you need to know about the world of television for Monday, May 15th, 2023.
UNDERSTANDING THE METRICS OF THE STREAMING VIDEO WORLD
I spend a lot of time in this newsletter writing about content valuation, subscriber metrics and the types of subjects that are integral to building a successful streaming video business. In part because I think the subjects are important and I find them fascinating. But also because I am trying to push back against some of the conventional wisdoms of the industry press coverage. Reporters are as prone to anyone else when it comes to perception bias. You are mostly likely to believe the things that reinforce your preexisting ideas. Which is why you tend to see lots of pieces proclaiming the "streaming wars are over" or the "Netflix ruined Hollywood." It's not that the ideas are 100 percent wrong. But they do reinforce the beliefs you hear a lot from industry reporters and at best the ideas are misguided.
I was reminded of that today when I responded on Twitter today to the Dispatch's Sonny Bunch and I ended up a back-and-forth with a couple of people. And it all just reminded me that even very smart people believe what they want to believe, even if their argument has some gaping logic holes in it:
The most obvious problem with Bunch's approach is that "what people ask me" is interesting, but it’s not exactly what I would describe as a scientific approach to determining value in the streaming world.
And yet, there are a number of very smart journalists and industry people who absolutely refuse to believe in the validity of trying to assign value to content based on subscriber behavior. So much so that some people believe it's the equivalent of data masturbation:
And along those lines, I wanted to point out a post today from Roy Price, who among other things helped launch Amazon Video. He wrote a letter he believes should go out to all new employees at any streaming service. And he describes content valuation in a way that is very similar to my approach. So perhaps I am not insane?:
Fundamentally, you have to ensure that our understanding of what we are doing and why is correct and rigorous. If we don’t understand our key levers, we can’t make good decisions. This is mostly a question of audience insight and math. If you get this part wrong, you will certainly fail.
What metrics should we focus on to understand how we are doing and what we need to change? Usage by time cohort? Days per month per time cohort? Hours/mo.? Which of these correlate most strongly to retention? These have to be determined with rigorous regressions.
What are our high potential audience cohorts for customer acquisition? For retention? Why? What do they watch? How does this vary per country?
With what audience segments are we over and under indexing? Why and how should we respond?
Build an internal model sophisticated enough to contemplate marginal what if scenarios — what would happen if we moved $100MM from originals to licensing? What about from content to marketing? Or US to ex US? This requires sophisticated statistical analysis (which also has to be paired with a knowledge of what deals are actually available in the market).
Make sure you have systems that will track what shows are bringing people in the door, what seasons customers watch all of and what shows appear to be causing people to churn out. And that identify show traits that correlate to enthusiasm or churn, such as IMDb ratings.
Etc.
Intuitively, you will come to find that if customers use the service more than 3 times a month, or for more than 10 hours a month, they tend not to cancel, and that shows that get an 8 or above on IMDb tend to attract customers whereas shows that score below 7 tend to drive them away. You can use these conclusions to model how many shows you need.
Once you have a model and metrics and a sense of who is out there, and who might like you, — in LA, Dallas, Munich, Tokyo and Bangalore — you have to pair that with your and your team’s knowledge of content to figure out what content, what creators, what tone, will help you most, and differentiate you most, delight the market the most. Setting your fundamental framework, building a strategy out of it, and building the team are critical levers. Once you have done these things, you have largely determined whether you are going to wind up with Wednesday, Queen Cleopatra and Anna Nicole Smith: You Don’t Know Me (Netflix) or Transparent, Fleabag and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon).
And this discussion is a big part of why I send one of these newsletters out five times a week. There are plenty of places you can go (and newsletters you can subscribe to) that will crank out "streaming is a terrible business" hot takes.
This is not one of those places.
FOX ANNOUNCES ITS 2023-2024 PROGRAMMING SLATE
Returning FOX series include dramas 9-1-1: Lone Star (Season Five), Accused (Season Two), Alert: Missing Persons Unit (Season Two) and The Cleaning Lady (Season Three); comedy Animal Control (Season Two); animated series Bob's Burgers (Season 14), Family Guy (Season 22), The Great North (Season Four) and The Simpsons (Season 35); and unscripted series Farmer Wants a Wife (Season Two), Hell's Kitchen (Season 22), I Can See Your Voice (Season Three), LEGO Masters (Season Four), The Masked Singer (Season 10), Name That Tune (Season Three), Next Level Chef (Season Three) and Special Forces: World's Toughest Test (Season Two). Additional series renewals to be announced.
FOX’s new dramas include:
Doc is a new medical drama centered on the hard-charging, brilliant Dr. Amy Elias, Chief of Internal and Family Medicine at Westside Hospital in Minneapolis. After a brain injury erases the last eight years of her life, Amy must navigate an unfamiliar world where she has no recollection of patients she’s treated, colleagues she’s crossed, the soulmate she divorced, the man she now loves and the tragedy that caused her to push everyone away. She can rely only on her estranged 17-year-old daughter, whom she remembers as a 9-year-old, and a handful of devoted friends, as she struggles to continue practicing medicine, despite having lost nearly a decade of knowledge and experience.
From executive producer/director John Wells and executive producer/writer Matt Kester, the Hawaii lifeguard drama Rescue: HI-Surf follows the personal and professional lives of the heavy-water lifeguards who patrol and protect the North Shore of O’ahu—the most famous and dangerous stretch of coastline in the world. Each episode will feature these dedicated, heroic, and adrenaline-seeking first-responders saving lives in the difficult and often life-threatening conditions of Hawaii’s Seven Mile Miracle.
FOX’s new animated comedies include:
From Dan Harmon comes Krapopolis, an animated series set in mythical Ancient Greece. It centers on a flawed family of humans, gods and monsters that tries to run one of the world’s first cities without killing each other. The series’ voice cast features Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso), Richard Ayoade (The IT Crowd), Matt Berry (What We Do in The Shadows), Pam Murphy (Mapleworth Murders) and Duncan Trussell (The Midnight Gospel).
In Grimsburg, Marvin Flute (Jon Hamm) is a brilliant detective with opinions as eccentric as his taste, who can’t help but prioritize his own personal problems -- whether it be his family or petty differences among his co-workers -- over the crimes he’s tasked with solving. Now that he's back in Grimsburg, a town where everyone has a secret or three, Flute will follow every lead he’s got to redeem himself with the ex-wife he never stopped loving, even if it means hanging out with the son he never bothered to get to know.
FOX's new unscripted series include:
All-new game show Snake Oil is hosted and produced by comedian David Spade. In the show’s all-new original format, contestants are pitched unique products by convincing entrepreneurs – some of whom are showcasing real business ventures, while the others are “Snake Oil Salesmen,” whose products are fake. With the help of guest celebrity advisors, contestants must determine which products are real and which are a sham, for a chance to win life-changing money.
We Are Family is an all-new music guessing game show hosted and executive-produced by Jamie Foxx and co-hosted by his daughter, Corinne Foxx. Showcasing non-famous relatives of celebrities performing duets with their hidden famous family member, We Are Family will feature a studio audience entirely comprised of 100 contestants playing through multiple rounds of clues and gameplay to win up to $100,000 each by correctly guessing which celebrity the performer is related to before they are revealed. Celebrities appearing on We Are Family will range from musicians and professional athletes to actors and beyond.
I THINK HULU IS TRYING TO TELL ME SOMETHING IN THIS SURVEY
ODDS AND SODS
* Reba McEntire will be joining The Voice as a judge on the upcoming twenty-four, which premieres this fall. She'll be taking the place of the long-time judge Blake Shelton.
* Production on new episodes of You Bet Your Life has been suspended, with host Jay Leno issuing this statement: "As a member of the Writers Guild for almost 40 years, I truly understand and stand in solidarity with my fellow union members. For that reason, we are suspending production of our game show, ‘You Bet Your Life’ until such time when an agreement can be reached.”
* Peacock has nabbed the first streaming-only NFL playoff game. The wild-card game will stream on January 13th, 2024 at 8:00 p.m. NBC will air another wild card game at 4:30 p.m. ET, which will also stream on Peacock.
* The 83rd annual Peabody Awards in-person ceremony has been canceled due to the "ongoing uncertainty and meaningful challenges that exist industrywide," due to the Writers Strike.
* Warner Music Group operates a "nightcore" Spotify account that posts sped-up remixes of popular Warner-signed artists to covertly capitalize on TikTok trends.
* The HBO Original stand-up comedy special John Early: Now More Than Ever premieres on Saturday, June 17th.
* Season fourteen of The Real Housewives Of New York premieres on Sunday, July 16th.
TWEET OF THE DAY
WHAT'S NEW FOR MONDAY:
* All-American Season Five Finale (The CW)
* Celebrity IOU Season Premiere (HGTV)
* 9-1-1 Season Finale (Fox)
* Renovation Wild Series Premiere (HGTV)
* Street Outlaws: Locals Only Series Premiere (Discovery)
* Summer Baking Championship Series Premiere (Food)
* TMZ Investigates: Britney Spears-The Price Of Freedom (Fox)
Click Here to see the list of all of the upcoming premiere dates for the next few months.
SEE YOU TUESDAY!
If you have any feedback, send it along to Rick@AllYourScreens.com and follow me on Twitter @aysrick.