Too Much TV: Your TV Talking Points For Tuesday, October 31st, 2023

Is a SAG-AFTRA & AMPTP deal really "in sight?"

Here's everything you need to know about the world of television for Tuesday, October 31st, 2023. 

IS A SAG-AFTRA & AMPTP DEAL REALLY 'IN SIGHT?'
Negotiations between SAG-AFTRA and AMPTP wrapped early on Tuesday, but both sides are set to return on Wednesday for a full day of talks. It's also expected negotiations will continue through the week, as both sides try to come to an agreement in time to save the broadcast TV season.

Studio representatives have said a deal needs to be struck this week in order to have enough time to produce even an abbreviated broadcast season. While there is a bit of flexibility in that timing, even SAG-AFTRA sources agree that the production window is rapidly closing for broadcast television.

Strike negotiations are always challenging to cover as a journalist, because few people have the complete story. And after listening to everyone's partial takes, you can end up with nothing but a massive headache. 

Today is one of those days, because after speaking with a number of people after negotiations wrapped today, I'm a bit flummoxed.

After last weekend's talks, I was hearing from a number of sources that the negotiations today and potentially the rest of the week were going to focus on the money issues. Including the fate of that proposed share in a cut of streaming project revenue. The plan was supposedly to deal with the AI questions later in the week. In part because those discussions were seen by both sides as contentious, but easier to eventually find common ground.

"AI is a very binary thing to negotiate over," one studio source explained to me last night. "Either the studios will or won't be able to do something or the actors will or won't agree to a specific change. But in some ways, that's easier to navigate than arguing over percentages and new residual streams."

So imagine my surprise to see both Deadline and The Hollywood Reporter posting accounts of today's negotiations that argued today's talks focused primarily on AI and that many people believed a deal was "in sight:"

The two sides broke off in the afternoon after a day that was spent dealing with AI issues and are set to return to the bargaining table on Wednesday. While expressing that talks are headed in the right direction, one studio-side source says it could take a few days to work through remaining issues. Two additional studio-side sources said talks are progressing overall in a substantive way, and that a deal could be imminent. Multiple prominent actors said they have received word that a deal could be at hand soon, as well.

After speaking with a number of people this evening, today's discussion did reportedly center on AI and several sources on the studio side said that there had been hopes the framework could be resolved today. But a last-minute disagreement over one of the points raised on the studio side apparently left the AI negotiations closer, but not finalized.

I have a suspicion that the optimism in the trades comes in part from studio sources. I heard the same refrain tonight from studio side people I spoke with. But when pressed, they would eventually acknowledge both sides were still not close enough on the financials. The public optimism also comes from the natural telephone game nature of any difficult negotiating process. One person hears some vaguely positive piece of good news and by the time the story has made its way through the strike line or across the studio lot, it's been blown up into a massive change in the trajectory of the negotiations. And then there are the wild card events where someone's agent or manager calls you to say they've heard things "are close."

I have no idea if my sources on the studio side actually believe a deal is imminent. Or if they are playing the old negotiating game of setting expectations high in hopes of backing the union negotiators into a corner and they feel the pressure to settle. And there's no downside to that approach, since if it doesn't work, then the natural letdown on the union side when a deal isn't quickly made also provides some handy leverage.

From what I can tell, the truth seems to be that some progress is being made. There is some reason to be optimistic. Getting a deal done this week is possible, but much less likely than a scenario in which negotiations continue on and off through the weekend.

Have some thoughts or insight you'd like to share anonymously? Email at rick@allyourscreens.com or message me on Signal at 612-207-2108

A NEW ERA FOR HULU
This piece in the Hollywood Reporter is a nice recap of what is likely to happen beginning as early as tomorrow when Disney sits down with Comcast to negotiate how much it is going to cost to buy off Comcast's ownership of Hulu. And it's likely to be an expensive divorce:

Bazinet also touched on recent chatter that the entertainment powerhouse could look to sell a controlling stake in its India business, estimating it could be valued at about $10 billion. Assuming that Disney will retain a 30 percent stake, such a sale would bring in around $7 billion, according to the analyst.

In addition, the Citi expert estimated that Disney’s ABC network and TV stations, which Iger has said he could offload, could fetch a price tag of about $6.5 billion.

Concluded Bazinet: “Under most scenarios, the potential proceeds from a sale of the India assets and ABC are likely to offset the Hulu payment. However, if third parties ascribe a very high value to Hulu, Disney may need to use some of its existing cash to acquire Hulu.”

ODDS AND SODS
* The entertainment-centric Philo may offer the best balance of channels vs cost of any vMVPD. It's just added METV+ to its base package, the diginet Movies! to its Movies and More add-on package ($3 per month) and Confess By Nosey to its FAST channel lineup. 

* The civil rights documentary Gumbo Coalition premieres Monday, November 6th on Max.

* Fox Nation will debut new original film Christmas with the Foxes on November 23rd.

* The music documentary Stand Up & Shout: Songs From A Philly High School premieres Tuesday, November 7th on HBO. According to the logline, "The film follows 10th graders from Hill-Freedman World Academy (HFWA), a Philadelphia public school, who take part in a unique songwriting collaboration. Working in teams with local musicians, students come together to create an album of powerful original songs that capture both the challenging times they're living in and the joy that music brings."

* The Sundance Now original series Sanctuary: A Witch's Tale premieres with a two-episode debut on Thursday, January 4th.

* The second annual Byron Allen Presents TheGrio Awards, co-hosted by The Talk’s Sheryl Underwood and comedian Roy Wood, Jr., will air Saturday, November 25th on CBS.

* Tyler Christopher, best known for his Emmy-nominated role as "Nikolas Cassadine" on General Hospital, has died following a cardiac arrest. He was 50.

* Paramount+ has canceledJoe Pickettafter two seasons.

* CBS has pulledLotería Locafrom their schedule after five episodes. A Christmas episode will air in December, but no word if it will return after that. 

WHAT'S NEW TODAY AND TOMORROW:

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 31ST:
* Ralph Barbosa: Cowabunga (Netflix)
* The Boulet Brothers' Dragula Season Premiere (Shudder)

Click Here to see the list of all of the upcoming premiere dates for the next few months.

SEE YOU WEDNESDAY!

If you have any feedback, send it along to Rick@AllYourScreens.com and follow me on Twitter @aysrick.