Too Much TV: Your TV Talking Points For Monday, December 14th, 2020

Here's everything you need to know about the world of television for Monday, December 14th, 2020. I'm writing this from the Twin Cities suburbs, where AllYourScreens HQ is powered by hot tea and a lot of antacids.

2021 MIGHT BE A TOUGH YEAR FOR SVOD 
Maria Rua Aguete, Research Director for OMDIA, has a report out today that forecasts a challenging 2021 for most SVODs. In the report, she argues that while 2020 was a great year for streamers, they have now exhausted the pool of new subscribers who are the low-hanging fruit of subscriber acquisition. So 2021 will likely be more difficult, particularly for Apple TV+:

The four fastest-growing services of 2020 were Netflix, Apple TV+, Disney+, and Amazon Prime. All saw significant net adds stemming from COVID-19-affected markets. In 2021, all these services are expected to see significant declines in net additions. For Netflix and Amazon, 2021 will be their smallest year of growth in absolute terms since 2015.

For Apple TV+, the future is even more stark. After seeing a bumper year of growth, it is expected that the service will churn subscribers throughout the year, losing almost 8 million by year-end. This will partially be due to the end of generous free trials, but also due to the small library of content available on Apple’s subscription platform.

'THE OFFICE' HEADS TO PEACOCK NEXT MONTH, WITH FIRST TWO SEASONS AVAILABLE ON PEACOCK AVOD
At this point, it's not news that the long-running NBC comedy The Office is headed to the NBCU streamer Peacock in January. What is new today is that Peacock announced the first two seasons of the show will be available for free on the free, ad-supported version of Peacock. 

I have complicated feelings about the importance of moves like this one. Peacock was able to outbid Netflix last year and secured the show for five years, at a reported cost of about $100 million per year. That's not Big Bang Theory money, but it's a hefty investment. Given the optics of the show not being available on Peacock, the company had no choice but to nab the rights, whatever the costs. But despite all of the hype, I'm not convinced Peacock having The Office is any sort of gamechanger. Yes, it's nice to have and I am sure plenty of subscribers will be happy. But will having the entire run of The Office available on Peacock encourage anyone to subscribe?

Based on what I heard a few weeks back from an executive at Netflix, the answer is probably "No." Last month I spoke to someone at Netflix on background and was told that while The Office was an extremely popular series on the service, customers who watched the series the most tended to be long-time subscribers to the service. There also appeared to be a subset of those subscribers who watched the show in intermittent long stretches. Which led company engineers to suspect these subscribers would turn on the show and leave it on as background while they were doing other things. Especially since many of these viewers seemed to be randomly watching multiple episodes.

But while their data is by no means perfect, having The Office available didn't encourage people to subscribe to Netflix. But it was another reason for them to stay.

I have no doubt having The Office available on Peacock will be good for the streaming service. But I suspect their experience will match what was seen by Netflix engineers. It's a good show to have on your service. But it's not going to lower subscriber acquisition costs to any great degree. Of course, that fact won't stop the flurry of hot takes next month when the show hits Peacock.

ODDS AND SODS
Sky is adding Amazon Prime Video to its pay TV services in Europe. The app launches today on Sky Q, Sky Ticket and Now TV in the UK, Ireland, Germany, Austria and Italy. Sky's Now TV and Sky Ticket platforms will also launch on Amazon's Fire TV devices as part of the deal.

Tubi arrives today on the Roku platform in Mexico. It includes some curated channels from Mexico's media giant TV Azteca.

RECOMENDED READING
How A Tiny Startup Fixed The Future Of TV (Protocol)
Reelgood doesn't make shows, and it doesn't make TVs. What it does is try to make sense of the future of TV and movies. And it's doing it really well.

Dish And Cox End Long Retrans Dispute, Restore 14 Stations in 10 Markets (NextTV)
Dish Network has announced a multi-year agreement with Cox Media Group to restore 14 stations in 10 markets that had been blacked out on the satellite TV operator’s platforms since July. 

Disney Analyst Downgrades Stock: 'Now The Hard Part Begins (Hollywood Reporter)
BMO Capital Markets analyst Daniel Salmon downgraded his rating on Disney's stock today, citing recent gains. In a report entitled "Now the Hard Part Begins," he made Netflix his top pick.

Roblox Acquires Loom.ai, Accelerating Development Of Avatar Realism And Emotions (Roblox)
Roblox announced today the acquisition of Loom.ai, a privately-held company specializing in real-time facial animation technology for 3D avatars, using deep learning, computer vision, and VFX.

WHAT'S ON TODAY:
Here is a rundown of the new television programs premiering today:

1) A California Christmas (Netflix)
With his carefree lifestyle on the line, a wealthy charmer poses as a ranch hand to get a hardworking farmer to sell her family’s land before Christmas.

2) Celebrity IOU Season Premiere (HGTV)
Drew and Jonathan Scott offer renovations from Hollywood A-listers to individuals who've made a lasting impact on their lives. The celebrities this season include Zooey Deschanel, Allison Janney, Rainn Wilson and Justin Hartley.

3) Christmas With The Tabernacle Choir (PBS)
Kelli O'Hara and Richard Thomas join Christmas with the Tabernacle Choir.

4) Deliciousness Series Premiere (MTV)
Host Tiffani Thiessen and panelists Angela Kinsey, Kel Mitchell and Tim Chantarangsu celebrate the funniest food moments on the internet from home cooking disasters to barbecue fails.

5) Haul This House Series (fyi)
Haul This House follows the larger than life exploits of the Nickel Brothers –a Vancouver-based multigenerational family business who specialize in buying houses set for demolition, re-selling them to homeowners who want a home on the waterfront at a reasonable price, and then hauling these massive structures via truck and barge to their hard-to-reach-destinations. As picturesque as the Pacific Northwest is, these roads are also loaded with obstacles – pitch black nights, hanging power lines, massive hills, tight roads and even sinking landscapes present only a few of the challenges they’ll face.

6) Hilda Season Two Premiere (Netflix)
As Hilda explores new places and hidden spaces around Trolberg, her love of adventure and a growing streak of independence could lead her into trouble.

7) Lonestar Christmas (Lifetime)
When a single mom Erin (Stephanie Bennett) takes her daughters to spend Christmas with her estranged dad on his Texas ranch, she unexpectedly falls in love with local restaurateur Mateo (Marco Grazzini) while learning to forgive her father for the past.

8) Reunions (Acorn TV)
In this heartwarming, contemporary French drama, two half-brothers who learn about each other’s existence after the death of their father inherit a hotel on the paradise island of Réunion. Since the hotel is on the verge of bankruptcy, Jérémy (Loup-Denis Elion) and Antoine (Nicolas Bridet) and their respective families make huge sacrifices in working together to turn things around. Chloe (Laëtitia Milot), Jérémy’s companion, is immensely excited by the prospect of moving to the island with its stunning white sandy beaches and sees it as the ideal opportunity to start a new life, where the couple can leave behind their massive debts. She plunges herself enthusiastically into management with Jérémy and Antoine, who are from different races and economic classes. But things are not as rosy as they seem. This series explores the importance of family, parenthood and the class divide.

9) Slings & Arrows Virtual Reunion (Acorn TV)
Celebrate the critically-acclaimed, cult Canadian comedy Slings & Arrows series with a virtual reunion taped in October 2020, by ATX TV. The participants include cast and creators Bob Martin, Susan Coyne, Mark McKinney, Martha Burns, Luke Kirby and Paul Gross.

10) Tiny Pretty Things Series Premiere (Netflix)
When an attack brings down the star student at an elite ballet school, her replacement enters a world of lies, betrayal — and cutthroat competition.

This newsletter is called "Too Much TV" because....well, it's hard to keep track of all the new television premiering everyday. To help you prioritize your viewing, click here to see our list of more than 400 upcoming television premieres, movies and finales. You'll find listings from more than 70 networks, as well as streaming services and web shows.

I'll be back with another one tomorrow. If you have any feedback, send it along to Rick@AllYourScreens.com and follow me on Twitter @aysrick.