Too Much TV: Your TV Talking Points For Friday, November 10th, 2023

The strikes might be winding down, but the bad industry hot takes continue

Here's everything you need to know about the world of television for Friday, November 10th, 2023. 

THE STRIKES MAY BE WINDING DOWN, BUT THE BAD INDUSTRY HOT TAKES CONTINUE

This newsletter has added thousands of free subscribers since the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes began and over these past few months, a large percentage of what I have been writing has been either strike-related or dissecting industry issues that were impacting the strike.

But in more normal times, the editorial mix has a much wider scope. It's whatever happens to feel important to me. And in many cases, that involves pushing back against established industry conventional wisdom. Or in some cases, against the media industry's answer to those old coots sitting on their front porch grumbling to themselves and muttering "Get off my lawn" at the neighborhood kids.

This brings me to today's column from The Bulwark's Sonny Bunch, who I am sure in real life is a perfectly fine person. But like a lot of journalists covering Hollywood, he sometimes doesn't know what he doesn't know. And that can lead him down some truly dumb roads as he attempts to cram every industry news event through the prism of "streaming sucks - it's ruining theatrical and is a terrible business."

The jumping-off point for his column is the decision by Warner Bros. Discovery to shelve the completed Coyote Vs. Acme film permanently, taking a $30 million tax write-off:

On the other hand, though, Coyote vs. Acme is almost certainly worth more to Warner Bros. Discovery as a $30 million tax write-off than it would be as a streaming picture. Would that movie generate $30 million in new sign ups? Are they going to lose $30 million in angry cancellations because a movie they never heard of featuring a second-tier cartoon character and a second-tier action star isn’t going to get made? Of course not. The problem with streaming is most individual pieces of hashtag content make no real dent in the bottom line either way. It’s nearly impossible to disaggregate what works and generates revenue and why outside of truly monumental hits like Stranger Things or Game of Thrones.

There is a lot of wrong crammed into one paragraph, so I'll just dwell on the highlights. 

Bunch shows absolutely no comprehension of how streaming works financially. Let's be clear, given the lack of family-friendly films in movie theaters right now, shelvingCoyote V.s Acmewas a bad call. Yes, there is a real chance that after you add in marketing and distribution costs, the film's most likely scenario would have been to break even. But even if the film didn't reach that threshold, it would have made money in streaming and whatever VOD and physical sales revenue that was generated after the theatrical run.

But he is absolutely wrong about the way he characterizes streaming content valuation.

There are entire companies whose business model involves trying to assign a number to the value of various titles on streamers using only data obtained from outside the company. Now, you can argue about the accuracy of their efforts (I certainly have my questions), but at the very least, it's an effort to determine the value of content.

Things are much different if you have access to internal numbers and to give you a sense of the complexity of this, here's a description I wrote a few months ago about the methods used at the time by Netflix to determine the value an original series has to the streamer, and by extension if it made financial sense to renew it:

A primary Netflix metric is called the "adjusted view share," which is a combination of more than 30 factors that attempt to assign an overall "value" for any piece of content. An example I was given was that it's possible to track which content was most watched by brand-new subscribers last month. That content would be considered more valuable because it presumably was one of the reasons why viewers subscribed. But if those viewers exit after a month or two, that lessens the value of the content. The assumption is that some percentage of the canceled subscriptions came from people who subscribed primarily for a specific show.

It depends on where people are watching. A show that is more popular in a region such as the U.S., where the ARPU (average revenue per user) is higher has a greater value than one that tracks more in regions where the ARPU is lower. Although that indicator is weighted less than some others whether the content is attracting subscribers in a territory where subscriber retention costs are high also factors into the equation. Netflix also tracks how many people complete a TV show within a week, and the percentage of people who rewatch a series (although if the number is too high, it's discounted as possible fan manipulation). And there are many more. Each of the factors is weighted differently and the weighting can apparently change as the company's strategy evolves.

If Bunch was arguing that adding Coyote Vs. Acme wouldn't provide a $30 million value to Max, that's a different discussion. But his claim that there's no way to put together an accurate valuation of the impact is just plain wrong.

And predictably, Bunch follow ups with a backhanded slam at the streaming business and an argument for the "obvious" financial upsides of the theatrical release model:

If only there were a way to, somehow, make money on a single movie—a lot of money, potentially—all in one go. You could even build large places where people could all gather at the same time in order to see these motion picture events. And then, after a reasonable amount of time and that source of revenue had been tapped, you could move it to a streaming service to let other people watch it.

Wild idea, I know. Probably wouldn’t work. But we can dream!

This argument might resonate better if Warner Bros. Discovery hadn't decided that it didn't make financial sense to release Coyote Vs. Acme into theaters. If anything, the WBD's decision to write off the film rather than lose money in a theatrical release undercuts Bunch's point.

Even in the links section of his newsletter, he can't restrain himself from making a variation of the same tired point. Again:

Huh, so, Verizon is bundling the ad-supported tiers of Netflix and Max together for a lower price and offering them to customers as a package. Maybe they can add more streamers and increase the savings. And then they could, potentially, bring all those channels straight to the consumer via some sort of cord or cable. It’s just crazy enough to work!

As you continue to read this newsletter, you will learn that this stuff drives me nuts. It's the easiest thing in the world to write snarky pieces crapping on the streaming business and nostalgically longing for the "good old days" of the cable bundle and the thriving movie theater business.

But as I have written before, the Golden Age was already on its way out before Netflix ever began streaming its first video. Netflix was a symptom of the collapse, not a cause. 

All of this is important because, during the dual Hollywood strikes, I was amazed by how many people just didn't understand the streaming video business. And if you don't understand how someone's business works - or if you insist on seeing it through the lens of an older business model - you'll ever be able to figure out what things to negotiate for and how to identify their weak spots.

TWEET OF THE DAY

ODDS AND SODS
* Alan Alda recently auctioned off the dog tags that he wore for the entire run of M*A*S*H to raise money for charity. As it turns out, the dog tags belonged to two real-life G.I.'s and in this really great piece for The Ankler, Andy Lewis tracked down the identity and families of the two men.

* The CW has reworked its primetime schedule again. It's pulled Run The Burbs after airing 15 episodes and Everyone Else Burns after three episodes. Beginning next Thursday (November 16th), Reruns of Whose Line Is It Anyway? open the night, followed by season two episodes of Children Ruin Everything and reruns of The CW Joke-Off.

* Recent theatrical release Blue Beetle will being streaming on Max next Friday, November 17th.

* Here is an overview from SAG-AFTRA about some of the terms of the proposed deal with AMPTP.

WHAT'S NEW TODAY AND THE WEEKEND:

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 10TH:
* After the Blast: The Will To Survive (ABC)
* At The Moment Series Premiere (Netflix)
* Belle Collective (OWN)
* Dina Hashem: Dark Little Whispers (Prime Video)
* 007: Road To A Million Series Premiere (Prime Video)
* Everything Christmas (Hallmark)
* For All Mankind Season Four Premiere (Apple TV+)
* Power Book IV: Force Season Two Finale (Starz)
* The Great American Baking Show: Celebrity Holiday (The Roku Channel)
* The Killer (Netflix)

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 11TH:
* Albert Brooks: Defending My Life (HBO)
* Beyond The Battlefield (History)
* Buddy Valastro's Cake Dynasty Series Premiere (A&E)
* Christmas Island (Hallmark)
* Christmas Keepsake (Great American Family)
* Devil On My Doorstep (Lifetime)
* Legends Of The Fork Series Premiere (A&E)
* OWN Spotlight: Oprah, Courtney B. Vance & Dr. Robin (OWN)
* The Craftsman: Preserving The Last Higgins Boat (Magnolia)
* Variety Salute To Service (History)

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 12TH:
* A Christmas Blessing (Great American Family)
* A Heidelberg Holiday (Hallmark)
* A Roommate To Die For (Lifetime)
* Beacon 23 Series Premiere (MGM+)
* Candace Parker: Unapologetic (ESPN)
* Christmas Tree Capsule (UPtv)
* Good Cop, Bad Cop Series Premiere (Investigation Discovery)
* Kids Baking Championship: Sweets-giving (Food)
* The Case Against Bryan Kohberger (Court TV)
* The Circus Series Finale (Showtime)
* The Curse Series Premiere (Showtime)

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 13TH:
* A Town Called Victoria (PBS)
* Barmageddon Season Premiere (USA)
* Blackberry (AMC)
* Hidden Assets (Acorn TV)
* Love Has Won (HBO)
* The Bermuda Triangle: Into Cursed Waters (History)
* The Chase (Acorn TV)
* The Lady Bird Diaries (Hulu)

Click Here to see the list of all of the upcoming premiere dates for the next few months.

SEE YOU MONDAY!

If you have any feedback, send it along to Rick@AllYourScreens.com and follow me on Twitter @aysrick.