Too Much TV: Your TV Talking Points For Wednesday, August 10th, 2022
Here's everything you need to know about the world of television for Wednesday, August 10th, 2022.
And a shout out to the outside publicist who just sent me an email reminding me that Paramount+ is streaming both the Pro Pickleball Association (PPA) Tour this weekend AND the American Cornhole League Competition next weekend.
DISNEY EARNINGS AND SUBSCRIPTION NUMBERS
The Walt Disney Company released its Q2 earning this afternoon and most of the coverage is along the lines of this story, which comes from an unnamed industry outlet:
The Walt Disney Co. Aug. 10 announced that its branded Disney+ subscription streaming service ended the third quarter (ended July 2) with 152.1 million subscribers worldwide. That represented a 31% increase from 116 million subs at the end of the previous-year period.
Lots of outlets are touting the increase in global subscribers and comparing the total to Netflix's global subscriber numbers. But there is a lot of context to keep in mind.
Even by the metrics of the streaming industry, "subscriber" is an approximate description for Disney. For instance, if you live in the U.S. and subscribe to the discounted Disney bundle of Hulu, Disney+ and ESPN+, you are counted as three full-price subscribers. Even though you may barely watch one of the services.
And yet, outlets are posting headlines like this one:
"This obviously comes with a bundle-sized caveat...?" Then why stick it in the headline if it's misleading? I don't mean to pick on this outlet, I saw plenty of stories out there along these lines and a lot of these sites should know better. The "Disney Vs. Netflix" comparison is just clickbait candy, even if the premise comes with a big "caveat."
Some other thoughts about the numbers...
* A lot of attention is being rightfully paid to the news Disney is lowering its global subscriber estimates in the near-mid term. The company reported 221.1 million today and previous guidance was a range of 230 million to 260 million subscribers by the end of 2024. Disney lowered the target range about ten million, but what's interesting is that it also announced that going forward, it will separate the Disney+ Hotstar brand in India from the overall number. The consensus seems to be that the brand will face a substantial subscriber decrease following the loss of a major cricket league. So it's going to be more challenging in the future to compare growth on a comparative basis, which was likely lead to some even more confusing headlines over the next year.
But there are also a couple of other things going on with that decision. The average revenue per user (ARPU) for those Disney+ Hotstar subscribers is substantially less than Disney's other streaming customers and dropping those subscribers will boost Disney's overall global ARPU close to $2 per subscriber. And removing those Disney+ Hotstar subscribers from the overall total also makes it less likely there will be clicky headlines over the next two quarters that trumpet Disney's overall drop in global subscribers.
So given all of that, how does Disney still increase it's global subscriber numbers with the loss of India's Disney+ Hotstar subscribers? The ad-supported launch of Disney+ in the U.S. this year will help and Disney+ continues to build out in other territories. So the calculation seems to be that there will be growth, just not to quite the level it had previously estimated.
* Speaking of that, the Disney+ ad-supported tier is set to launch in December and good news for parents is that Disney+ will not have ads in profiles for children and preschool viewers. I know a similar conversation along these lines is happening at Netflix and I expect a similar move when they announce the launch of their ad-supported plan soon.
* For all of the talk about the streaming content apocalypse and how all of the major streamers are slashing content spend, Disney isn't making any major changes for now. It's slowing its content spend slightly - from $33 to $32 billion a year - but even if you strip out the 50 percent of the content budget that goes to live sports programming, that still leaves Disney spending $16 billion a year on non-sports content. Which is comparable to Netflix's slightly reduced $17 billion a year over the next two years. It's looking more and more like the original content apocalypse is more an issue for Warner Bros. Discovery, which is frantically trying to slash spending to pay for its recent merger.
* Disney announced that it’s raising the price of Disney Plus to $10.99 per month, up from its current price of $7.99 per month, starting December 8th in the US. The move comes as the company is looking to restructure its pricing options, which will soon include a $7.99 a month ad-supported tier. Hulu with ads will increase to $7.99 per month on October 10th and the ad-free tier will then cost $14.99 a month. A price increase of ESPN+ to $9.99 per month had been previously set to take place on August 23rd.
There are also a number of other price tweaks. Subscribers with an ad-free Disney Plus subscription along with an ad-supported plan for Hulu and ESPN Plus will face a $1 increase from $13.99 to $14.99 per month. Disney’s also introducing a bundle that includes Disney Plus and Hulu with ads for $9.99 per month. Meanwhile, Disney Plus, Hulu, and ad-supported ESPN Plus will cost $19.99 a month.
Disney has also adjusted its pricing for its Hulu live TV bundles. Hulu’s live TV bundle with ad-supported Disney Plus, Hulu, and ESPN Plus plans will increase to $69.99 a month. The live TV bundle with ad-free Disney Plus, as well as ad-supported Hulu and ESPN Plus plans, will cost $74.99 and a live TV plan without ads on Disney Plus or Hulu and ad-supported ESPN Plus, will run $82.99 per month.
THE THING ABOUT 'PREY'
Even if you discount Hulu's kinda vague viewing stats about the new movie Prey, it's clear that it is grabbing lots of viewers and the even better for Hulu, the reviews and social media buzz have been overwhelmingly positive.
But its success has also prompted a number of think pieces speculating that Prey might have done well in theaters and that a successful theatrical first run would have only made the film more valuable when it hit streaming. I'm not going to point out any of the articles, but you're probably seen a few of them this week.
And to be kind, they're wrong. Even if you assume Prey would have done well in theaters (and it would have taken some nimble marketing to make that happen) and even if you accept that that a theatrical release always increases the value of a movie (and I think it's a situational decision), Disney's decision to release Prey directly to Hulu was a smart strategic decision.
As I mentioned in passing last week, Prey was contractually committed to being released directly to Hulu and changing that decision would have required a renegotiated contract.
It's a typically complicated Hollywood story. When Disney purchased Fox, there was an output deal in place that sent Fox movies exclusively to HBO Max for their pay-one TV window. That deal runs through the 2022 release year, but last winter, Disney Media & Entertainment Distribution and WarnerMedia amended their current output agreement and agreed to share about half of the 2022 titles on both platforms, beginning with the family comedy Ron's Gone Wrong (remember that one?). HBO/HBO Max retained pay-one TV window exclusivity on the other half of the titles, but Disney negotiated to specifically carve out Prey. WarnerMedia apparently agreed to allow that movie to be released by Disney, but it had to premiere on streaming and not have a theatrical release.
So the irony is that releasing Prey into theaters would have been great news for WarnerMedia. They would have been able to extract something from Disney in order for them to agree to the platform change and then once the theatrical release of Prey had ended, the movie would go straight to HBO Max.
And as Paul Harvey used to say back in the golden age of radio, "And that's the REST of the story."
CONGRATULATIONS, 'LOVE ISLAND'
Peacock touted on Tuesday that Love Island USA has become its "most-streamed original unscripted series."
Obviously, that's a pretty vague statement. But I was curious about how many original unscripted shows had aired so far on Peacock.
After a bit of research, the answer seems to be 16. Although "show" is a pretty wide-ranging description in this case. Half of those titles are sports-related and many of those are so-called mini-series presentations with only 3-4 episodes.
Looking at the 16 titles another way, only half of them had more than 4 episodes and of the remaining eight, only three series could be considered an actual series and not a multi-episode closed-end documentary: True Colors, Paris In Love and Born For Business.
So, with all of those caveats, congratulations Love Island USA!
WHAT'S NEW FOR WEDNESDAY
Here's a quick rundown of all the new stuff premiering today on TV and streaming:
Bank Robbers: The Last Great Heist (Netflix)
Court Night Live Series Premiere (A&E)
Heartsong (Netflix)
I Am Groot (Disney+)
Indian Matchmaking Season Premiere (Netflix)
Instant Dream Home Series Premiere (Netflix)
Locke & Key Season Three Premiere (Netflix)
Resident Alien Season Premiere (Syfy)
Click Here to see the list of all of the upcoming premiere dates for the next few months.
SEE YOU THURSDAY!
If you have any feedback, send it along to Rick@AllYourScreens.com and follow me on Twitter @aysrick.