Too Much TV: Your TV Talking Points For Thursday, October 5th, 2023

The myth of Peak TV. Part Deux.

Here's everything you need to know about the world of television for Thursday, October 5th, 2023.

PROGRAMMING NOTES
Entering day six and the web site is still offline. The most recent ETA is sometime tomorrow…..

I LOOK FORWARD TO GETTING BACK TO PRODUCT PEOPLE TALK
The dual Hollywood strikes have obviously dominated this newsletter in recent months (and rightfully so). But those topics have pushed out some of the subjects I would otherwise focus on. Such as streaming app UX issues and the overall discussion of the importance of good product managers. You can create the most compelling programming in TV history. But if your app sucks or users can’t find what they’re looking for, all of that work is for nothing.

The Rebooting

has a great piece today on product people and Brian Morrissey’s description of their role will likely sound familiar to those of you who have encountered one of those magical people who just possesses an innate feel for the way things should work:

But here’s the thing, you don’t need to be a product manager or a product marketer to be a product person. Being a product person is a vibe that means you can connect the dots within a business to apply technology to a business challenge and create new value. Being a product person is an identity. Product people usually can’t code a lick. At best they’re the tech industry’s Rick Rubin, who told Andersen Cooper he could “barely” play an instrument, adding, “I have no technical ability. And I know nothing about music.” At worst, they’re middle managers pretending to be “men in the arena.”

I like to ask people if they consider themselves a product person, and most say they do. It’s a badge of honor, saying you have a sophisticated, if surface, understanding of technology and how it can be applied, at least in the abstract and from a safe altitude. You understand enough to be dangerous, and what is truly possible in a time frame. You understand when the people building the product are dragging their feet, and you understand when the laws of physics and limits of engineering are reached. Just saying “I want it now” is not a sign you’re a product person.

THE MYTH OF PEAK TV: PART DEUX
Sometimes it’s difficult for me to predict which newsletters will spark a lot of feedback and conversation. Yesterday’s piece on the myth of Peak TV was shared more than any newsletter in recent weeks (side note: I encourage you to share these, since they’re free to all). And I received a lot of great insight from readers, some of which I want to share with you.

The interesting thing about this “Peak TV” myth is that once you notice it, you see people repeating it everywhere.

For instance, The Ankler has a piece today from an anonymous industry business affairs executive who presumably knows the streaming business better than most.

And in the middle of the piece is this paragraph:

Virtually everybody seems to agree that the 599 scripted comedies and dramas produced for the U.S. market in 2022 represent the true “peak” (finally!) in “peak TV.”  As entertainment conglomerates continue to agglomerate, and also-ran streaming services fold (or fold into their competitors), the question isn’t if the overall volume of series production will decline — it’s by how much. Although it will take years for the industry to re-equilibrate, I expect that the long-term carrying capacity for a healthy and sustainable TV/streaming ecosystem is 300 to 350 scripted series per year — a decline of 30 to 40 percent from the high-water mark of 2022. It would take a better mathematical mind than mine to measure the overall impact, but the decline in development and production volume will certainly — and dramatically — offset many of the WGA’s meaningful gains in wage minimums.

I won’t waste your time recounting all the reasons why I think that so-called peak number is flawed - just go back and read yesterday’s newsletter. But the fact the premise is just accepted as established data isn’t just frustrating. It’s also bad for business. Because if you build strategic decisions around the wrong premise, all you are going to do is make a series of increasingly flawed decisions.

One of the things I mentioned in yesterday’s newsletter is that focusing on just the raw number of new shows left out a lot of variables. For instance, one show cranking our 23 episodes would count the same as four shows that each have six-episode seasons.

I haven’t been able to find a good way to accurately track the number of episodes of new TV produced each year. But a reader pointed me to the DGA’s Episodic Television Director Inclusion Reports, which tracks the number of television episodes directed during each year as well as the percentage of dramatic television episodes directed by women and directors of color.

While this reporting doesn’t match up precisely with the way the FX Research people came up with their list of Peak TV programs, it does offer some conflicting data.

According to FX, 2022 was the likely “peak” year of television. Although I suspect in retrospect, we’ll realize that some of that year’s increase can be attributed to the rush to get production back to full strength following the COVID-19 industry shutdowns.

But if you look at the DGA data, they show the number of episodes being produced topped out In fact, the DGA reports show that the raw number of DGA-covered episodes of television being produced peaked during the 2016-2017 season, with a number reported as “near 4,500.” The number dropped to 4,300 the following season and has dropped every year since. The DGA hasn’t released numbers from the 2022-2023 season, so I can’t tell if the number rebounded post COVID-19.

Now the DGA list counts episodes on both returning and new shows and the list of outlets it covers isn’t as extensive as the FX list. But it does indicate the 2022 so-called peak might not be the most accurate take.

Speaking of FX, I was pointed to this piece about John Landgraf by Steve LeBlang, who was Senior Vice President, Strategic Planning & Research, FX Networks and Emerging Networks, FOX Cable Networks from 1999-2009. According to his resume, his role there included:

Oversaw all qualitative and quantitative research and strategy recommends, including scheduling, positioning, marketplace analysis and brand evolution for suite of nine cable networks, including FX.

So he knows a lot about the research efforts at FX that led to the “Peak TV” declarations. And he offers up an interesting perspective on Landgraf’s efforts:

John is literally the most competitive and tenacious executive I have ever encountered, and far and away the most demanding boss I ever worked for.  When he believes in something, he champions it with a fervor and zeal unlike almost anyone I have ever seen in ANY business, let alone TV.   So those that have cited his parochialism in his eagerly awaited annual (sometimes bi-annual) updates on Peak TV aren’t totally wrong when they would chide that a significant motivator was to level the playing field so that FX shows could win more awards, have greater appeal for creative talent who would have fewer options so that they could be produced somewhat less expensively, and that he alone would decide what’s a good show.  As someone who was often in the uncomfortable position of having to provide empirical data that would sometimes show results he believed were impossible, it put me squarely in the crosshairs of debates I was in no position to win.  Furthermore, his earlier days on top had fewer breakout hits than he had later, plus there were fewer ways to spin success at that time.

As I said at the top, this discussion has prompted a lot of feedback. But I have this sinking suspicion that the idea of “Peak TV” is so firmly ingrained in the industry’s psyche that it is nearly impossible to convince people to reconsider the premise.

I’ll be curious to see what the final numbers are for 2024. There is going to be a large backlog of productions coming into the market. Including many shows which were mostly completed before the SAG-AFTRA strike shut everything down. It’s going to be a skewed number. The question is whether or not that will bump it back up overall into record-setting territory.

TWEET OF THE DAY

ODDS AND SODS
* SAG-AFTRA is still negotiating with the studios, with talks to resume tomorrow. The parties will be working internally over the weekend, resuming Monday, October 9th. I have heard a lot less off-the-record spin so far from the studio side compared to during WGA negotiations. Which either means no one wants to muddy the water during a sensitive period. And/or the studio side has realized that trying to spin the strike narrative through the press wasn’t a successful effort.

* SVOD BroadwayHD announced today that it had reached a deal with NBCUniversal to stream a collection of NBC’s live musicals, including Hairspray Live!, The Sound of Music Live!, and Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert. These titles will debut on BroadwayHD throughout the fall, with The Wiz Live! and Hairspray Live! already available.

SEE YOU FRIDAY!

If you have any feedback, send it along to Rick@AllYourScreens.com and follow me on Twitter @aysrick.